NOTE: Here we have an NFL game with all types of odds as an example. Let's take a look at a process how a handicapper would go about this game.
Point Spread Analysis
For most sports handicappers and online sports bettors the point spread is one of the most bet on types of bets a person can make. The point spread is essentially the "line"; the handicap, or head start that the favorite gives to the underdog for betting purposes.
The points spread is best known for football (NFL, NCAA College football) and basketball (NBA and NCAA College basketball) but the same principles apply under different names to baseball with run lines and hockey with puck lines.
Most sports handicappers will look at the early lines when the sportsbook put out their odds. From there a handicapper will analyze certain factors of the game.
In the example above the point spread between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals is -2 and +2. Most sports handicappers will look at the head coaches, offenses, defenses, injuries and home crowd to determine how the spread might affect the home and away team. Also a major factor in determining a handicappers choice is the past trends against the spread (ATS) other statistical information. All of these factors all play in the determination the outcome of a point spread analysis.
Money Line Analysis
For sports handicappers the money line analysis is much like the Point Spread Analysis but excludes the point spread. The money line bet is strictly a straight bet on who will win the game outright without any movement of the line. All you have to do is determine the winning team.
The same rational and forecasting is researched for money line games with trends analysis and statistical forecasting like match ups of offenses and defenses as in point spread analysis. Now in a money line bet sometimes it is not economically worthwhile to place a bets on the money line as the payout is too small compared to the amount wagered to win.
In the example above the money line is +107 for the Bengals which means that they are the underdogs in the game which the Steelers are a – 127 in the game. That means if you bet 100 on the Bengals and they win you will $107 and if you bet 100 on Pittsburgh and they win than you take home 78.
Totals Analysis
When determining totals there is a completely different betting strategy, as the winning and losing team have no effect on analyzing totals bets. In totals bets the combined point/runs/goals scored in a game determines a winning bet.
So for sports handicappers one must look strictly at the point production and defenses of a team to make an assessment for total bets. In baseball pitching match ups are a key and in hockey the top scoring line and goalie all play a part in total analysis.
In the above example the total is 42 1/2 which means that both teams must have a combined score of 42 ½. The trick is to determine if the Pittsburgh Steelers defense can hold the points on a high scoring team like the Bengals.
In sports handicapping everyone thinks they can predict games but it takes a combination of sports knowledge, statistical analysis and an insider view to breakdown the point spreads money lines and totals for all sporting events. |
