Value betting on NFL games

by Steve Larson

If you spent some time on sports betting like I have, you probably already know that making money on it is nowhere near as simple and easy as some online sports betting websites would have you believe.

Much like in poker, you cannot hope to eek money out of your betting, unless you understand how the system works.

I know you regard yourself a big football specialist, I know you’re a Pats (or any other team’s) fan and you’ve followed them for years. Certainly, you know a lot more about the teams, the players, the coaches and even behind-the-stage rumors, than a person who hasn’t watched a game of football in his/her life. You’re probably a much better handicapper than someone who watches games for fun too. Does that make you a potential winner in online or offline sport-betting? Hardly…

You see, when you go to the bookie and you place your bet, you’re not going up against some dude who thinks he knows football. You’re not even matching wits with a reasonable recreational bettor. You’re up against the best of the best, the bookmaker who has whole teams of professional handicappers working for him.

The bookmaker’s interest is to have “balanced” games, as far as the number of wagers are concerned. He basically needs to have about the same number of bettors on one side of the bet as on the other. When the game concludes, he takes the money from those who lose, pays out those who win, and keeps the juice. This is the basic principle behind every book-making operation. Naturally, a perfectly balanced game is almost impossible to achieve, but you shouldn’t be anxious for he bookmaker, nonetheless. He has a set of tools at his disposal, which he can use to balance the match-up. He can move his lines about, to make one or the other side of the bet look more attractive. He can also gauge the juice (vig) that he takes, in order to compensate for the differences, or he can choose to cover the empty side of the bet himself (they sometimes do that).

Bottom line is, no matter how great a handicapper you are, you won’t be able to beat he bookie, unless Lady Luck takes you under her wings. You can go shop around for picks on the internet, that may spare you a lot of time and trouble, especially if the handicapper selling you those picks is trustworthy enough. Otherwise, just about the only efficient way to do your handicapping is the reverse method. Don’t just consider the facts you think are essential for the outcome of the game. Also pay attention to the Vegas lines. Take both sources of information into account, and decide based on that.

Pay keen attention to the hidden value. A perfect example of the hidden value would be week 5’s Packers vs Bears match-up. The Packers looked like a team that would barely hang on at the beginning of the season, yet they got off to a superb start, going 4-0-0 in their first four games. By their 5th game, experts were beginning to assess them quite differently, and they were regarded favorites against the banged-up Bears, yet, it would appear the true colors of both teams finally shone through.

The Bears were regarded a solid team before the season’s beginning, but their 1-3-0 start made them lose handicapping value fast. Nonetheless, they were a team capable of handing it to the Packers on the road, all the time. People all knew this, but the general feeling about their performance made them lose trust. The crowd pressure on the part of the bettors certainly left some uncovered value, the bookmakers tried desperately to make up for. That was exactly where the hidden value surfaced. Those who put their money on the Bears in this confrontation, certainly cashed in a lot better than they would have if the game had taken place at the season’s start.

Games like these are where the money is in NFL betting.