2006 NCAA
College Football Bowl Games
by Dennis "The Viking" Altenburg
Kansas City Chiefs # 6 (9-7) at Indianapolis Colts (12-4) # 3
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on NBC
Indianapolis was one of two teams to go undefeated at home; the
San Diego Chargers were the other team. But in the last 2 years,
home teams have not done so well on wild card weekend. Last year,
the New England Patriots were the only home team to advance to the
next round and, the year before that, only the Colts took advantage
of home field to move on.
This is a very telling set of statistics: the Colts are dead last
in the NFL in total rushing yards allowed (2,768), rushing yards
allowed per game (173), rushing 1st downs against (150), and runs
of over 20 yards allowed (18). Teams have run the most against Oakland,
but Indianapolis is a close second. Kansas City has a pretty good
rusher named Larry Johnson. In fact, he finished right behind San
Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson in every rushing category except
touchdowns. Can you see where this is heading? If the picture isn’t
clear yet, here’s what’s going to happen: Kansas City
is going to run, run some more, and then run again. The Colts lost
4 games this year, to: Dallas (RB Julius Jones, 1084 yards), Jacksonville
(RB Fred Taylor, 1146 yards), Tennessee (RB Travis Henry, 1211 yards),
and Houston (RB Ron Dayne, only 612 yards for the season, but 2
time Rose Bowl MVP, Heisman trophy winner, and 153 yards against
the Colts). Larry Johnson rushed for 1789 yards, which is over 500
yards more than Travis Henry. To make matters worse for the Colts,
Johnson led the NFL in carries with 416, and 6 times went over 30
for the game – all Kansas City victories. The Colts gave up
100 + yards rushing in every game they played this season.
Indianapolis will have to concede the rushing matchup and offset
KC’s dominance on the ground with their superior air attack.
Indy QB Peyton Manning will go to his 2 favorite receivers, Marvin
Harrison and Reggie Wayne, play after play. Kansas City has a weak
pass rush and that will give Manning plenty of time to wait for
his receivers to get open against a suspect Chiefs secondary. That
KC secondary is made up of veterans Greg Wesley, Sammy Knight, Patrick
Surtain and Ty Law, and they have a combined 36 years experience
doing their job. The concern is that they have lost the jump necessary
to cover Harrison and Wayne.
The Chiefs counter with WR Eddie Kennison and TE Tony Gonzalez.
Both players had decent seasons, but neither player put up big numbers.
QB Trent Green will start this game despite rumors that his injuries
would keep him on the sidelines. Gonzalez is always a threat to
get a timely 1st down and might be the difference in this game,
once Larry Johnson has done his bit. Look for a high scoring game
with plenty of offense and spectacular plays, with the score lead
changing hands often.
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Dallas Cowboys (9-7) # 5 at Seattle Seahawks (9-7) # 4
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on NBC
This one is up for grabs. If both teams play to their potential,
it will be a great game. But if these 9-7 teams play like they did
in finishing their season and stumbling into the playoffs, book
a round of golf and check the score later. Seattle used to be a
tough place to win, no matter which team came calling. The 12th
player (the fans) made so much noise that visiting teams usually
played the entire game using audibles and other signs to get the
play off. This has been a rough year for the Seahawks and their
fans, though. Injuries to key players, especially QB Matt Hasselbeck
and RB Shaun Alexander, threatened Seattle’s playoff chances.
Even when they returned, the two all-stars looked average and took
a long time to gel with the rest of the team. The San Francisco
49ers beat them twice and it took until week 16 for the Seahawks
to capture the NFC West title. Seattle lost 3 of their last 4 games
of the season (including their last 2 home games), and beating Tampa
Bay in week 17 isn’t really saying much. The weather could
be an issue for Dallas. Seattle is used to the rain and wind, and
now the area has had a fresh dumping of snow. When you are used
to playing in sunny Texas, the adverse conditions of the Pacific
Northwest can be a reality check.
There will be a lot of excellent matchups in this game, starting
at the top. The head coaches for both teams have won Super Bowls;
Seattle’s Mike Holmgren came close last year to matching Bill
Parcells’ mark of winning Super Bowls with different teams,
but came up short against Pittsburgh. Holmgren would love nothing
better than get back to the big game. There’s not much point
talking about who is the better coach – when you reach that
level, you’re in pretty elite company.
The Dallas Cowboy offense will be able to take advantage of Seattle’s
inability to cover star quality receivers like Terry Glenn and Terrell
Owens and stop big time rushers like Julius Jones and Marion Barber.
As long as Dallas QB Tony Romo doesn’t get flustered by playing
in his first NFL playoff game, the Cowboys should be able to gain
some big yardage.
The action will be just as spectacular when Seattle has the ball.
Although it has taken a few games for Hasselbeck to return to form,
he IS back and has a bushel of offensive weapons to go to. WRs Darrell
Jackson and Deion Branch have had banner years, and TE Jerramy Stevens
provides a nice short yardage outlet. No matter who is carrying
the ball out of the backfield, Alexander or Maurice Morris, FB Mack
Strong will be leading the way against a Dallas defense that allowed
more points and yards than any other team in the last 4 games of
the season.
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New York Jets (10-6) # 5 at New England Patriots (12-4) # 4
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS
This will be the best of the games played this weekend. As with
the NY Giants and Philadelphia Eagles game, this will be a contest
of divisional rivals. The two games were split this year with each
team winning in the other’s stadium. The Patriots won the
first one in New York 24-17 in week 2, and the Jets returned the
favor, beating New England 17-14 in Foxborough in week10. In both
games, New York was able to put together long drives against a good
Patriot defense – something few teams have been able to do.
The Jets have a fair defense as well. In their last 8 games, New
York allowed more than 14 points only once. The Jets were 6-2 on
the road this year while New England was 5-3 at home.
Both teams should start with the run, then start mixing things
up. New York RBs Kevan Barlow, Leon Washington and Cedric Houston
have all made their mark this year, while Corey Dillon and rookie
Laurence Maroney have been dynamite for the Patriots. With the speed
in the backfield of both teams, expect to see a few long breakers
on each side of the ball. Both quarterbacks are good at spreading
the ball around and hitting whoever is open. Tom Brady and Chad
Pennington are smart football players and make good decisions. That
reduces turnovers and allows the play to develop, but requires a
strong offensive line effort to protect the quarterback.
The head coaches, New England’s Bill Belichick and New York’s
Eric Mangini have a 9 year history together and probably sat at
each other’s dinner table many times when they served with
these teams’ coaching staffs. They know the style of the other
and have spent hours wondering how THAT will play out. Each coach
knows how his counterpart should react in a given situation, and
that’s where the double and triple guessing sets in. Belichick
is a master of finding a team’s weakness and going at it all
game long. Mangini was Belichick’s defensive coordinator last
year and his defensive backs coach for the 5 years before that,
so he knows the Patriot defense.
Both these teams have earned their way to the bigtime. The Jets
won 5 out of their last 6 and the Patriots won 6 of their last 7
heading to the playoffs, but the Patriots have also won 3 of the
last 5 Super Bowls – that is going to be the difference in
this game.
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New York Giants # 6 (8-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) # 3
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX
The two names that come up immediately in this wild card game are
Jeff Garcia and Tiki Barber. In last week’s season ender,
Barber ran for a team record 234 yards and 3 TD’s. Since he
announced his retirement for the end of the Giants’2006-07
season, the game against Washington might have been his last, if
New York didn’t win. He decided to make a little noise. Now
he is facing the same scenario – Saturday against the rejuvenated
Philadelphia Eagles could be his last game and he will be pumped.
The talented RB will get plenty of touches in an effort to give
himself and the Giants just one more game. The Eagles defend well
against the run, however, and know Mr. Barber’s habits and
tendencies from playing against him twice a year for the last decade.
Eagles quarterback Jeff Garcia has been instrumental in his team’s
rebirth. Since starting quarterback Donovan Mcnabb went down with
a severe knee injury, Garcia has guided Philadelphia to a 10-6 record
since taking over the starting job when the Eagles were 5-5. The
Eagles finished their regular season with 5 straight victories,
and that’s a nice bit of momentum to be riding into the playoffs.
The New York Giants have lost 6 of their last 8 after starting
the season 6-2, but then the team got decimated by injuries. Over
the next 4 games, QB Eli Manning lost his confidence and the Giants
lost their direction. When it came down to the crunch, New York
did what they had to do to make the playoffs – beat Washington
in their final scheduled game. Philadelphia doesn’t have a
great pass defense and that will certainly play into Manning’s
favor. With Barber running for his life, the Eagle linebackers will
tire quickly of trying to get to Manning, and might get fooled often,
especially on the play-action.
Philadelphia head coach Andy Reid knew in the first quarter of
his week 17 game against the Atlanta Falcons that the Eagles had
won the NFC East title by way of Dallas losing to the Detroit Lions.
That allowed Reid to sit some of his key starters, and try a few
“last page of the playbook” plays. A.J. Feeley came
in to relieve Jeff Garcia and had a career game, going 22 for 33
and 321 yards, no interceptions and 3 TD’s.
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