Bobby Locke
CFL Playoff Semis
*Originally I had picked Toronto to win this game, however
the latest wire has Kevin Glenn as a probable starter. If Glenn
plays on this Sundays, it will change the whole landscape of the
game. With Glenn in the line up the Blue Bombers are 9-5 and without
him starting they are 0-4.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Toronto Argonauts
+3 1/2 Winnipeg; Under 43
Sunday, Nov 5, 1 p.m. Eastern
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers meet the Toronto Argonauts in the Eastern
semi-final, the winner getting the chance to play Montreal in the
East final. In many ways, these teams are similar, which should
make the final score close.
Winnipeg’s strength on Defense is their front line and linebackers.
DT Doug Brown, DE Gavin Walls, and LB Barrin Simpson are finalists
for Outstanding Player Awards. The Blue Bombers will have good success
slowing Toronto’s running game (RB’s John Avery and
Ricky Williams) and will force Toronto QB Damon Allen to throw more
to receivers Arland Bruce and Tony Miles.
Toronto’s strength on D is the secondary, having filled 4
of the 5 positions available for the Awards with CB Jordan Younger,
CB Byron Parker, DB Kenny Wheaton, and S Orlondo Steinauer. Together
with DE Jonathan Brown and LB Kevin Eiben (also finalists), Toronto
will stymie the Bomber passing game. Toronto rushes just three down
linemen in most passing situations and finished the season ranked
last in sacks with 27, so Winnipeg QB Kevin Glenn will have time
to throw, he just won’t be able to find many open receivers.
The biggest difference in this game will be the turnover factor.
The Argonauts more than doubled the number of interceptions that
the Bombers had, 30 to 13. On the other side of the ball, Toronto
has given the ball away far less than Winnipeg. The differential
is telling: Toronto is +8 while Winnipeg is -11.
The Bottom Line
Winnipeg will run the ball all day with CFL rushing leader Charles
Roberts, trying to avoid Toronto’s daunting secondary. Slotback
Albert Johnson finished 2nd in the league to Roberts in all-purpose
yards and Bomber QB Kevin Glenn has WR Milt Stegall downfield. Winnipeg
will have some moderate success moving the ball offensively, but
it won’t be enough to win this game. These teams met 3 games
during the season with every game coming UNDER the posted total
for this game.
Take Winnipeg + 3 ½ and UNDER (43)
Saskatchewan Roughriders (+ 7) @ Calgary Stampeders and
(Under 50 1/2)
Sunday, Nov 5, 4 p.m. Eastern
Sunday, in the Western CFL semi final, the Calgary Stampeders host
the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Calgary won 8 of their 9 games at
home this year, while the Roughriders lost 6 of 9 road games. Points
scored For/Against for both teams were almost identical, and so
were their records, Calgary at 10 - 8, and Saskatchewan 9 - 9.
These teams played their 3 games against each other in a 5 game
stretch early in the season. The first game was a shootout, Stamps
winning at home, 53 – 36. The next 2 games were low scoring
and didn’t solve much with the Roughriders beating Calgary
19 – 9 and the Stampeders returning the favour a week later
23 – 7.
Calgary QB Henry Burris has a talented offense in RB Joffrey Reynolds,
and receivers Jeremaine Copeland, Elijah Thurmon, Nikolas Lewis,
and Ken-yon Rambo. All those players scored at least 5 TD’s.
Burris was the second leading rusher on the team. But they will
be playing a strong Saskatchewan Defense that boasts three Most
Outstanding Player Awards finalists, including sack specialist DE
Fred Perry.
The Bottom Line
The #1 Offense of the Stampeders goes against the #2 Defense of
the Riders and that’s what going to make this game close –
it will probably be decided by a Field Goal. As in the East semi,
turnovers in this game will be critical. During the season, Calgary
was +10, Saskatchewan -2. That is a huge difference in a close game.
Take Saskatchewan (+ 7) and UNDER (50 1/2)
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