Bobby Locke's
CFL Eastern and Western Conference Finals Preview
Toronto Argonauts @ Montreal Alouettes (-3) and (Under
45 1/2)
Sunday, Nov 12, 1 p.m. Eastern
Toronto is coming off an emotional come-from-behind win over the
Winnipeg Blue Bombers. However, they did it behind the arm of backup
Michael Bishop and not the immortalized Damon Allen, who struggled
to move the Boatmen last Sunday, just as he has all weekend. This
will most likely be Allen’s last game, as Toronto should find
the Alouettes more than ready for this faltering offense.
While the Als’ QB Anthony Calvillo has traditionally struggled
against the bend-but-don’t break D of the Argos, he should
have enough to push Montreal over the top and to the Grey Cup in
Winnipeg, as I don’t expect a repeat performance from Bishop.
The key to Montreal’s success will be not turning over the
ball, and limiting Bashir Levingston and the Boatmen’s punt
return game. If they are able to consistently force the Argos to
drive the length of the field to muster any points, I don’t
see them doing that consistently enough to keep up with the Montreal
offense, which should push a heavy dose of Robert Edwards at the
Toronto Run-D, the CFL’s worst at stopping the run.
The Bottom Line: All the adds up to a 8-10 point
win for the Alouettes, as well as a low scoring affair, which likely
could go down to the final minutes of the fourth quarter. But much
like two weeks ago when Montreal had to travel to Toronto and win
to claim top spot (23-20), the same will happen here. Only having
the extra week rest, and the home field advantage will provide the
extra 4-6 points for the Als.
Take Montreal (- 3) and UNDER (45 ½)
Bet
this game now at Bodog Life.com
Saskatchewan Roughriders @ British Columbia Lions (-7 1/2)
and (Under 53 1/2)
Sunday, Nov 12, 4 p.m. Eastern
BC, having placed eight players on the All-CFL team and having
won 13 games this year, showed that they were clearly the class
of the league this year. However, their one blemish was the Green
and White from Saskatchewan, having dropped three of four games.
But when you look deep inside and analyze this game thoroughly,
you will see that the season series was not all it seemed to be.
And it’s very hard to beat a very good team four times in
one year, which is what the Riders are looking to do.
First off, the Lions went through a number of changes to a pair
of keys areas: the offensive line and the defensive backfield. In
adding Murphy (one of two All-CFL tackles) and Jimeniz (considered
just as solid as Murphy), the Lions added a dimension that they
hadn’t had on the O-Line for a long time: toughness. And in
the secondary, the addition of high-priced halfback Korey Banks
from Ottawa provided for some early struggles as the unit learned
to play together. But in the long-run, the unit became arguably
the best in the CFL. So as the Leos were learning to play together
early on, the Roughies were able to take advantage, squeezing out
a pair of wins over the Leos in the first four weeks of the season.
The other win came in overtime, when the Lions offense struggled
as Dickenson played the whole game with concussion symptoms (having
not come clean with doctors the week before). So after struggling
out of the gate with a 2-3 record, the Lions then went 11-2 in wrapping
up the West. Now, I’ve considered the Green Riders to be the
second best team in Canada for most of the year, despite their record.
The struggled for consistency, but seem to be hitting their stride.
Key for the Riders will be absolutely controlling the line of scrimmage
on both O and D. If they fail to do that, the Lions’ advantage
in the skill positions on both sides of the ball will allow them
to take over this game, and it may even turn into a 12-14 point
win. So the Riders MUST get lots of pressure on the Lions’
QBs (Dickenson or Pierce) without having to blitz their LBs too
much, and they MUST protect Kerry Joseph from the CFL’s best
pass rush, and give Kenton Keith some running lanes against the
league’s #2 rush D.
The Bottom Line: So the problem for Saskatchewan
is that when you take a look at the Lions’ strong O-Line,
the best receiver in the league (Simon), a big RB (Smith), the deepest
QB list in the CFL, the #1 D in turnovers and sacks, and probably
the edge in the kicking game (because of punting), it’s hard
to see anything other than a BC win in this game. And I think Saskatchewan
will have difficulty moving the ball consistently against this very
good, big play D of BC’s. And with almost 55,000 fans expected
at the game, Joseph will not be able to audible on second and long
plays, which will be a problem and likely will result in turnovers,
something the Lions have done all year.
Take BC Lions (-7 ½) and UNDER (53 ½)
Bet
this game now at BetUS.com
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