NFL AFC and NFC Championship Match Up

by Dennis "The Viking" Altenburg

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET

Chicago had to go to overtime to beat a Seattle team that had nothing left by season’s end. Now the Bears host a team that is still improving and wants to win this game more than anything. The New Orleans Saints had the #1 offense in the NFC this past season, and the Chicago Bears had the #1 defense. That matchup always makes for a good game, but in 10 past Conference finals where #1 Offense played #1 Defense, the #1 Offence has gone 7-3.

The Saints are 6-2 on the road this season, while Chicago is 6-2 at home, so home field does not appear to be an advantage here for the Bears. Both teams are healthy with one exception; WR Joe Horn re-aggravated his groin injury last week and is questionable for this game. If the Saints defeat the Bears and play in Miami in 2 weeks, Horn will play on crutches if he has to.

New Orleans has to play good defense if they are to win and move on to Super Bowl 41. The 2 biggest factors that will determine the winner of this game are the lop-sided Drew Brees - Rex Grossman quarterback matchup, and the New Orleans defense. If the Saints can get to Grossman early, they will be able to shake up his confidence enough to force crucial turnovers. As good as the Chicago defense is, Drew Brees has enough experience not to get as flustered as Rex Grossman when the Bears have the ball. Rex Grossman did not have a bad game against Seattle, going 21/38 for 282 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. He didn’t lose the game for the Bears, and that was the big concern before kick off. Drew Brees had the best season of his career, passing for 4,418 yards (best in the NFL), 26 TD’s, with only 11 interceptions.

Chicago will be able to score on New Orleans. Four times this season, opposing teams scored 31 or more points against the Saints. That is a big concern because the Bears had the 2nd best offense in the NFL behind the Saints. On the other hand, New Orleans held their opposition to only 2 scores or less in 5 games. Who knows which Saints D will show up? One thing is for sure – coach of the year Sean Payton has treated that as his #1 priority in preparing for this game.

New Orleans has never been in an NFC title game before and will make the most of the opportunity. The Saints made NFL history by being the 1st team to make a conference final after losing 13 or more games the previous season. The entire New Orleans Saints organization helped the citizens of the Big Easy recover from the devastation left by Hurricane Katrina while trying to concentrate on playing football, and that’s why the sentiments of the nation are pulling for New Orleans in this game.

With all the great offensive weapons New Orleans has, Chicago will be up against their stiffest competition yet. An offense like the Saints have is able to break down the opposing D – Chicago can’t focus on everybody – and New Orleans will gain good yardage all day. RB Deuce McAllister put up 143 yards against a pretty good Philadelphia run defense and speedster rookie Reggie Bush was able to find open field for some good gains to account for 200 yards against the Eagles. The Bears counter with the running tandem of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson, but their efforts will not be enough for Chicago’s main thrust, and Grossman will find himself in passing situations more than is good for him.

With so many factors seemingly going in favor of the Saints, the Bears have a few things going their way too. There is a game breaker on their team in the kick returning sensation, Devin Hester. Hester had 5 returns for TD’s this year, and can break a team’s heart any time the ball is in his hands. And the stingy defense doesn’t get to be #1 by accident. Coach Lovie Smith’s background is defense, having served as linebacker coach for Tampa Bay and defensive coordinator for St. Louis. In college, Smith received numerous linebacker awards before beginning a long collegiate coaching career. You can bet that his focus in preparing his team this past week in practice was on minimizing the Saints’ running yardage, and getting to Brees to try to hurry his throws. The Bears will grind away, playing fundamental football and hoping that is enough to book their tickets to Miami on February 4.

The swirling winds at Soldier Field in Chicago can mess up the best passing attack, but that is just what the Saints and all their fans want to see -- a strong Brees.

Bet this game now at Bodog Life.com

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts

With the San Diego Chargers and Baltimore Ravens gone, Indianapolis gets to host the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. In recent years, Peyton Manning and the Colts have met the Patriots twice in the playoffs and failed miserably to get the job done. In 2003, Manning was intercepted 4 times enroute to a 24-14 loss, and the next year, the Colts scored only a single field goal in a humiliating 20-3 defeat. In those 2 games, Manning was intercepted 5 times and had a total of 1 TD pass. However, both those games were played at Foxborough where the Patriots were invincible, and this game is being played in Indianapolis where the Colts are a perfect 9-0 for the 2006 season and playoffs. Even though New England is 8-1 on the road this year, home field will be a huge advantage in this game.

The Achilles Heel for Indianapolis this year has been their run defense, and every sports writer in America has been quick to point that out. But on their way to this game, the Colt defense allowed Kansas City to score only 8 points, and limited Baltimore to 6, and those two teams have pretty good RB’s in Larry Johnson and Jamal Lewis. New England has a trio of pretty good RB’s themselves, Corey Dillon, Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk. Indy will be hard pressed to shut all of them down. Tom Brady will be able to cut the Indianapolis secondary with play action passes set up by the relentless pounding of the Patriot backfield.

There is no denying the power of the Colt offense either. Many times this game, the best combination in NFL history – Peyton Manning to Marvin Harrison – will connect. When Harrison is not the target, receivers Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne will be hauling them in. On the ground, RB’s Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai will provide the necessary yardage to sustain long drives. Both teams will probably use similar attacks – solid running games, plenty of downfield sideline passes, and effective short yardage passing in the middle of the stretched out secondaries. New England actually scored more points and allowed fewer on the road than they did at home, so maybe they would rather play this game in the RCA Dome, especially since the Colts finally beat the Patriots 27-20 at New England in week 9.

Patriot head coach Bill Belichick, mastermind that he is, may be up against his match in this game. Not so much against his Indianapolis counterpart, Tony Dungy, but against the abilities of this edition of the Colts themselves. The irony for this game is the real possibility that the outcome will be decided on the last play of the game – a field goal attempt by Adam Vinatieri, the kicker that used to play for the Patriots.

The Colts have the desire and motivation, but do they have the skill to overcome New England’s experience? That, friends, is the Million Dollar question.